ARM Rate Risk

Understand your ARM mortgage rate risk. See what a reset could do to your payment, and how the common strategies compare, before your fixed period ends.

Payment
$5,067/mo
Balance
$911,579
Equity
$438,421
Resets In
5 yrs
After Reset
$5,974
Change
+$907/mo
Your Mortgage

Tell us about your loan

Fill in your mortgage details below. We'll calculate your exposure and show how each common strategy plays out for your numbers.

I have a $ mortgage over years. The first years are fixed at %.
I'm currently in year of my loan.
My home is worth approximately $.

What rate do you expect at reset?

Select a scenario based on where you think rates will be when your fixed period ends.

%
How these scenarios are derived: Rate projections are built from CME FedWatch implied policy rates, 5-year SOFR forward swap curves, and the median of the NY Fed's Primary Dealer Survey as of July 2026. The Base Case (6.50%) reflects the consensus midpoint for ARM index rates by 2031. Probability weights are calibrated from Monte Carlo simulations of 10,000 rate paths using the Hull-White short rate model fitted to current term structure. Historical context: ARM reset rates have ranged from 2.35% (Jan 2021) to 8.64% (Jul 2006) over the past 20 years.